Run! Run!! Tinubu, Trump Is Coming For You

Successive administrations in Nigeria have always sought validation from Western countries. Past and present leaders appear obsessed with what the West thinks of them. They copy and paste initiatives from abroad without considering local realities—perhaps remnants of a colonial mentality.

I recall how the late President Muhammadu Buhari was reluctant to engage with local media during his first term in office, yet openly romanticised foreign media outlets. Similarly, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s failure to visit the United States became a political issue and a stumbling block to his presidential ambitions. Prominent Nigerian politicians have also jostled to deliver long, unsolicited speeches at Chatham House in London. Having lived in the UK for years, I can confidently say the audience rarely cared.

Beyond image and validation, many Nigerian politicians seek favour with the West because that is where their stolen wealth is hidden. It also serves as a refuge should Nigeria implode. External influence, therefore, plays a significant role in our local politics.

The moment President Donald Trump designated Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern, President Tinubu knew a serious problem was at hand. Trump adopted a hardline stance on Nigeria’s deteriorating security situation, arguing that Islamist terrorists were killing Christians. Whether this claim is true or false depends largely on perspective.

Known for its lacklustre response to security challenges, the Nigerian government suddenly woke from its slumber. Tinubu pretended to be on top of the situation. Police officers were reportedly withdrawn from VIP protection—on paper, at least. Security chiefs were summoned for crisis meetings, and colourful photographs were circulated for public consumption. This triggered a wave of state-sponsored content creation. The Nigerian Army’s social media pages sprang back to life, sharing success stories of the so-called war against terrorism. All of this occurred alongside quiet diplomatic engagements with the Americans. It was obvious Tinubu wanted Trump off his back.

For a while, Trump’s threats appeared empty—until the night of Christmas Day, when the US Department of War bombed Sokoto State. Trump announced the attack in his characteristic style via social media and promised to return. The action generated mixed reactions, reflecting Nigeria’s heterogeneous nature. Shortly after, Trump sent further shockwaves across Nigeria and the world—this time via Venezuela.

In a movie-style operation, he effected the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The move bore similarities to a military coup. Venezuela’s sovereignty was trampled upon, Maduro’s rights disregarded, and the United Nations Charter shredded. Trump then embarked on a media victory lap. Major countries, including the UK, struggled to openly condemn the United States. The United Nations, powerless against its largest funder, released an ineffective press statement. Trump appears to be above the law.

Trump’s interest in Venezuela is not difficult to decipher: oil. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. According to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Venezuela possesses 303.3 billion barrels—slightly more than Saudi Arabia’s 297.7 billion barrels. Trump made no attempt to hide his intentions, openly stating that America would control both power and oil in the country. His justifications—drug trafficking and poor leadership—remain unsubstantiated. The so-called “narco-terrorism” claim lacks incontestable evidence.

Trump is clearly emboldened. He has warned that Colombian President Gustavo Petro could be next, along with Cuba and Mexico. Tinubu must be watching these developments with growing unease. If Nigeria’s security situation deteriorates further, Trump—who has a keen interest in crude oil, which Nigeria also possesses—may step in.

Christian villages in Adamawa State have been attacked. Niger State has suffered bandit raids and abductions. Borno State remains a hotbed of terror. The attackers in Adamawa seemed to send a message to Trump: they want the smoke. Other security breaches have occurred across the country. Trump is likely watching—and calculating.

Tinubu would be a small fish to fry. He is alleged to have engaged in questionable dealings in the United States before rising to political prominence. His educational history in the US also fails the smell test. Ultimately, Tinubu is an unpopular leader—so unpopular that some Nigerians openly wished he received the “Maduro treatment.”

Trump may be closing in. Vocal Islamic cleric Ahmad Abubakar Gumi has alleged that he has been marked by Americans for elimination, suggesting panic within influential circles. Rumours also claim that the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III, has been sleeping rough.

Tinubu needs to act fast. He must stop handing Trump the excuses he needs.

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Osahon Osayimwen writes from England.

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