The Nigerian Messiah Who Will Never Come

In 2015, I wrote an article in which I described the ruling party, All Progressives Congress, as the 'same old wine in a new bottle'. In 2021, I also penned down an Independence Day opinion editorial in which I likened Nigeria to a young, beautiful, but highly vulnerable lady who has been taken advantage of by crafty men. Fast forward to 2023, and I predicted that the Tinubu administration would look good on paper but would be hellish in reality. I asserted that Tinubu's strength was not in governance but politics.

Bear in mind that I am not blessed with the gift of divination, at least to the best of my knowledge. It's just common sense. The best way to predict the future is by undertaking a vivid analysis of the past. It's 2025 already, and the politicians are regrouping. Their primary goal is to exploit that beautiful lady named 'Nigeria' again. The strategy is simple - rebrand, wear an empathic mask, pretend like you care and over-promise. By the time you know it, her legs will fling open again, and it's goodnight, Irene!

The failures of the Tinubu administration are not new; we all expected it. Nigeria is a highly complicated political terrain. Some of Tinubu's initiatives, like the Fiscal Restructuring, Support for Businesses, Infrastructure Development, Student Loan Scheme, Exchange Rate Unification and others, seem well-intentioned. Every government in Nigeria, except the military regimes, look good on paper. The execution of plans and strategies has always been the major challenge. This might not be far from the fact that these politicians operate like businessmen out to make a profit at all costs. They want to profit unimaginably from any policy or proposed capital project. This parasitic and exploitative mindset cripples the efficacy of developmental initiatives. Nigeria is a well-laid bed heavily infested with bed bugs. Any occupant of that bed space is at risk of invasion.

Politics is very lucrative in Nigeria. The money involved is inconceivable. Today, you are a pauper; tomorrow, you are rich enough to set hard currencies on fire to heat your home. The politicians know this. There is no other more lucrative and viable thing to do. Even some of the biggest businesses in Nigeria are tied to politics, just like we have in China, where the Chinese Communist Party controls everything. The Nigerian political space, like other climes, can't accommodate everybody every 4 years. A set of political actors will be the ruling elites, while another party will constitute the opposing or counter-elites/anti-elites. The ruling elites eat bountifully at the dining table while the opposition watches uncomfortably. The opposing elites then regroup, find a lethal strike force and formation, aimed at displacing the ruling elites from the dining table. The quest for power has led to coalitions amongst political actors/parties to birth the APC, All Democratic Alliance (ADA), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This is the foundational factor.

I doubt if any of these politicians honestly care about the poor masses. All of a sudden, you hear conversations like: 'Nigerians are unhappy', 'Nigerians are hungry', 'Nigerians are dying', 'The economy has collapsed', 'They are all corrupt', 'There is no infrastructure' and so on. when most of these recycled elites were in power, the conversations were the same, and they disputed it. Now that they are on the other side in the wilderness, they are chanting the same slogans they discredited.

I am a die-hard realist. I strongly believe no coalition is congregating, expending money, doing long hours of meetings at odd times, and engaging in bitter rivalries with dangerous political actors because they love the masses and want to rescue Nigeria. Anybody who believes this might require psychiatric examination and subsequent inpatient admission on a long-term basis.

A few of them might be visionary, but they are outnumbered by lions and hawks who are seeking to plunder and destroy. From historical antecedents, most of them don't believe in the Nigerian project. This is the reason why their children are educated and based abroad. This is the reason why they are easily treated abroad for headaches and physical stress. Most of their business investments are outside Nigeria. To them, Nigeria is just a 'place of work' and not a home. It is their hustle. These leaders have travelled to the developed countries countless times, and they have also lived there. They have experienced good governance in these saner climes. Unfortunately, they are not remotely close to bringing Nigeria close to a similar growth and development.

In my first week in the United Kingdom, I wept in my heart due to the changed atmosphere and working infrastructure. At the Lagos airport, I was being harassed for money by airport officials; the insanity ended as I landed at the Heathrow airport in London. The mentality was different. Everything was orderly and organised. I felt robbed by the Nigerian system. Bear in mind that the average Brit also believes the system here has collapsed, so it's not perfect here.

The level of hopelessness in Nigeria is a direct catalyst for migration. Both the haves and the have-nots blindly left the shores of Nigeria for physical and economic safety. Today, it is the dream of Nigeria to relocate to first-world countries. Countries like the United States, Canada, the UK and others are tightening immigration routes and sifting out immigrants. If Nigeria were good, the majority of the people abroad would stay back. No place in the world beats your home. A university lecturer wouldn't set aside his PhD to become a care worker in the UK, a job the locals detest. They would rather be unemployed than be debased daily by the people they care for.

Regardless of how the coalition's battle against the Tinubu-led administration plays out, the poor masses are the biggest losers. These are poisonous rats in different holes. They regularly regroup to feast on the commonwealth surreptitiously. Their collective and concerted efforts constitute why Nigeria is perpetually retrogressive. Even if the rumoured messiah, Peter Obi, is a competent saint with altruism, he can't do it alone. Look at his team for crying out loud, his Labour Party is in tatters. 

Wrestling power from Tinubu will be equivalent to being rescued from kidnappers and handed over to armed robbers. It is a lose-lose situation. The only unanswered question is the scale of the impending loss. I hate to burst the bubble of any believer, but no messiah is coming. It's all a ruse. It is like the happy-ending story you tell a child to make childcare seamless.

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Osahon Osayimwen writes from England.