Fact Check: Amaechi's Claims on Economic Recession Under Jonathan is FALSE!!!

Posted by Odinaka on Thu 04th Aug, 2016 - tori.ng

In an investigative report with researched facts, it has been proven that the minister of Transportation's statement that Nigeria's economy was on recession during the Jonathan's era is FALSE!!!

Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi

We reported it here yesterday that while speaking in an exclusive interview on The Osasu Show, the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, alleged that Nigeria went into economic recession under former President Goodluck Jonathan but that the government only covered it up by saying it was cash-strapped.

The former River state governor who was then the chairman of Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), also said finance minister, Okonjo-Iweala begged him to stop saying Nigeria was broke at the time, adding that the economy went into a recession due to excessive borrowing.

“If you remember as governor, I said we’re broke. The minister for finance (Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) came to my office in Abuja here and pleaded with me that I shouldn’t say it again.

“So I knew as chairman of governors’ forum, that we had gone into recession under Goodluck (Jonathan),” Amaechi was quoted as saying.

FACT: Nigeria was not in recession under Jonathan

First: What is recession?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), CNNMoney, New York Times and leading economic bodies agree that a recession can be easily identified by “two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inï¬‚ation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)”.

They, however, add that on a global scale, one may need more than this metric to call a recession. IMF particularly says “it is often better to consider a wider set of measures of economic activity to determine whether a country is indeed suffering a recession”.

Second: Can recession be covered up? - Amaechi alleged that the Goodluck Jonathan administration covered up the recession.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private research organisation, which maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates of US recessions, recession cannot be covered up.

The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators”.

Your Verdict: Did Nigeria experience recession under Jonathan?

Goodluck Jonathan became Nigerian president on May 5, 2010 and relinquished power by May 29, 2015.

Central Bank of Nigeria data shows that there was never a single quarter of negative GDP growth from 2010 to 2015, and no “two consecutive quarters of decline (negative growth) in a country’s real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)”.

According to World Bank and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) opendata project, Nigeria experience annual economic growth ranging from 7.8 percent in 2010 to 2.7 percent in 2015.

Other economic metrics, such as inflation, unemployment, also do not show any signs of recession.

According to NBS, Jonathan’s administration saw unemployment spike above 10 percent in 2012 from about five percent in 2010. Jonathan left Nigeria with 8.2 percent unemployment.

The administration also moved inflation from 12.9 percent in May, 2010 to nine percent in May, 2015. No economic indices highlighted by the IMF, World Bank and NBS showed recession within 2010 and 2015.

Credits: TheCable News