Osinbajo, Saraki, Tinubu and Others: See the Top Contenders for the 2019 Presidential Race

 

 

Having closely followed Nigerian politics especially 2011 and 2015 elections, I believe there are enough indications to safely predict who and who might be most likely victorious presidential candidates in 2019.

 

Until PMB's recent medical trip I was convinced there was no major obstacle for a PMB's second term. This I believed was simply due to the lack of a viable presidential candidate that can challenge the president at the polls. 

 

May I remind you in 2011 that people voted mainly against GEJ due to his failures (real or perceived). Likewise in 2019 people (the majority at least) may consider voting against PMB (also against real and perceived flaws), but the deciding factor is lack of a reliable opposition figure to do to PMB what he did to GEJ. 

 

So foreclosing the above scenario due to the president's health gives room for predicting his likely successor. Going by the president's decision to play neutral in legislature leadership elections, it's safe to say the president may decide to do the same thing in 2019 regarding APC presidential candidate. 

This brings us to the top five people I'd consider most likely to succeed PMB.

 

 

Kwankwaso of course is the most popular northern candidate after PMB, and if you take the latter out of the race vast majority of northern electorates will vote for Kwankwaso. 

Also Kwankwaso are in a very good term with PMB and he seem to be one of the most idle candidates for him to anoint. Remember also Kwankwaso came second in 2015 APC presidential primary election, now imagine PMB out of the picture. 

 

Kwankwaso also seem to be the only nPDP decampee who has an excellent rapport with the presidency certainly more than a Saraki and Atiku. 

 

As I stated earlier we currently lack story opposition, and it appears the way things are going there isn't gonna be an opposition with momentum, resources, members, and acceptance in 2019 the kind APC had prior to 2015 elections. So the main rumble is gonna take place within APC, the emerging candidate may just sail through.

 

 

It's still no argument the Jagaban Borgu wields a lot of political clout follwership perhaps he's second only to PMB in terms of political base consolidation. 

If Asiwaju were to throw his at in the ring in 2019 am sure even the now popular VP Osinbajo will mobilize for him. It is noteworthy Asiwaju's base was instrumental in PMB's emergence as presidential candidate because much of northern voted were decided among PMB, Kwankwaso and Atiku.

 

It was Asiwaju's camp that boosted the former's votes to outweigh the rest. May be if northern candidates (the likes of Atiku, Kwankwaso, Saraki who might contest) were to divide their votes in 2019, a lone Asiwaju from the south could clinch the ticket. 

 

Forget PDP fielding a Dankwambo from the north, PDP is generally viewed as the main cause of Boko Haram, it's defeat is now credited to APC. Hence a northern candidate won't make any difference. 

 

 

The VP is arguably the most popular Nigerian politician today, especially giving his performance as Acting President. Unlike an overreaching Atiku or a docile GEJ as a VP and later Namadi Sambo, Osinbajo carries out his duties professionally and diplomatically. Also giving the level of trust, mutual respect and support he enjoys for PMB, I believe the president wouldn't mind giving him a chance to succeed him in 2019. 

 

The only issue an Osinbajo candidacy might face could mainly be from the interest of Asiwaju if he also decides to join the rest. Giving the latter's grip on the loyalists of the party, Osinbajo may be defeated in the primary election by Tinubu himself. That is of course giving the divided nature of northern votes among those possible contestants. The rest of the main election is going to be a walk in the park.

 

 

2019 might be the best time for Turaki to actualize his more than a decade old dream. His main challenge however is that he has more friends outside APC than inside. For example PMB still believes Atiku was part and parcel of the repeated mantra of 16 years PDP corruption.

 

While he may overlook a minister or a state governor who may not have done much of the damage, Atiku especially pre-2003 was the de factor president. Therefore we all know Atiku wouldn't be the idlest candidate for PMB to support. 

 

But due to the different vested interests in the party, Turaki could mobilize all the former PDP members in the party and we all know they are strong enough to hijack the party and nominate him as the presidential candidate. With people like Saraki, Tambuwal, Ameachi Dogara on his side, Atiku stands a very good chance against whoever Tinubu's camp will support. As I keep emphasizing, winning the primary election is the main issue. 

 

 

Giving the Turaki situation above, the Senate president may succeed in beating Turaki to get the "PDP members in APC" caucus support. A crisis is likely to erupt and trust these cunning PDP members to exploit it like they did in the Senate president election. 

 

 

Barring any major change like the death of the president (God forbid) or him anointing his preferred candidate outside these five (People like El-Rufai, but I believe he'd be more interested in a second term than this gamble unless the president asks him to fill in his shoes like OBJ did to Yar'Adua), I strongly believe the next president of Nigeria is up there.